Posted on March, 5, 2025 at 10:41 am
Australian winter crop production — including wheat, barley and canola — is estimated to reach 59.8 million tonnes for marketing 2024-25, 27% above the 10-year average and the third highest on record, according to a report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
In its March 3 Australia Crop Report, ABARES said grain receival data indicated that yields were better than expected, particularly in Western Australia and New South Wales where total winter crop production has been revised up 19% and 6%, respectively, from the December 2024 forecast.
Wheat production for 2024-25 is estimated to increase to 34.1 million tonnes, up 31% year on year and 28% above the 10-year average through 2023-24. Production in New South Wales and Western Australia — the two largest wheat producing states — is estimated to rebound by 82% and 64%, respectively, largely driven by increased production in the northern cropping regions of both states.
The barley harvest is seen increasing 23% to 13.3 million tonnes, 17% above the 10-year average, reflecting an estimated 10% increase in area and above average yields nationally.
Australia is the world’s No. 2 wheat exporter, behind only Russia and the top barley shipper.
Meanwhile, canola has taken a 2% dip to 5.9 million tonnes year on year despite better yields because of a decrease in total planted area. However, area planted did stay above the 10-year average, resulting in expected canola production 31% above the 10-year average.
“Area planted to winter crops in 2024-25 is estimated to have increased by 8% to 24.9 million hectares,” ABARES said. “This is a new national record, driven by a greater area planted to winter crops in New South Wales (up 27%) and Queensland (up 38%). Favorable seasonal conditions at the time of planting led to area increases in both states, with many expanding into regions not normally sown to winter crops such as northwest New South Wales.”
Summer crop production is forecast to fall slightly in 2024-25 to 4.7 million tonnes but remain 28% above the 10-year average. Favorable late spring and early summer rainfall boosted yield potential of summer crops, particularly sorghum for which Australia is the world’s second largest exporter behind the United States.
Sorghum production is seen increasing by 5% to 2.3 million tonnes in 2024-25, which would be 37% above the 10-year average of 1.7 million tonnes. Average yields are estimated to be 33% above the 10-year average, reflecting favorable seasonal conditions in major growing regions.
“Despite an estimated 4% decline in total area planted to sorghum, late spring and early summer rainfall boosted soil moisture levels and supported late planting of sorghum,” ABARES said.
Rice production is forecast to fall by 29% to 444,000 tonnes in 2024-25 with an expected 25% decline in area planted in New South Wales. Lower global prices and reduced general security water allocations are expected to drive the decline in production.
Source: World Grain