Posted on March, 25, 2025 at 10:15 am
Global wheat flour trade is forecast to decline to a three-year low in the 2024-25 marketing year, falling to 15.3 million tonnes (wheat equivalent), 10% below the six-year high reached last year, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its latest Grain Market Report.
The IGC said in its March 20 report that the retreat in flour trade primarily was linked to reduced import needs in Iraq, where the government recently authorized higher wheat exports amid ample local supplies, and moderating flour purchases by buyers in sub-Saharan Africa.
“Ample and competitively priced supplies from Turkey saw imports by sub-Saharan Africa climb to a seven-year high of 3.1 million tonnes in 2023-24,” the IGC said. “The increase was led by Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan, with the latter also boosting purchases from Egypt amid challenging conditions in the domestic milling industry. However, with this season’s curtailed export potential in Turkey, deliveries to sub-Saharan Africa are set to fall back to more normal levels, forecast at 2.4 million tonnes, down 200,000 from the October update but similar to the five-year average.”
Like Iraq, some buyers in the region are boosting purchases of wheat, which the IGC said is highlighted by the fact that the portion of wheat flour in reported all-wheat deliveries to sub-Saharan Africa to date stood at around 6%, down from 12% for the 2023-24 season.
The world’s other major flour importer, Afghanistan, is projected to have nearly identical intake from the previous year, importing 3.05 million tonnes in 2024-25.
“Despite reports of heavy local wheat supplies and efforts to boost exports, flour dispatches from Kazakhstan to Afghanistan, typically the main destination, during the first six months of 2024-25 were reported to be fractionally lower year on year at around 900,000 tonnes,” the IGC said.
Kazakhstan’s overall flour exports this season are set to reach a seven-year high of 3 million tonnes, up from 2.7 million in 2023-24, the IGC said.
Turkey, the world’s largest flour exporter, is forecast to see a 33% drop in shipments this year to a 10-year low of 3.8 million tonnes, the IGC said. The country was impacted in the first few months of 2024-25 by import restrictions limiting access to competitively priced wheat supplies from the Black Sea region.
“While the recent removal of import limitations for wheat could aid future deliveries, the upside may be limited by the waning demand from Iraq and increased presence of Egyptian suppliers in some African markets,” the Council said.
The IGC’s initial outlook for 2025-26 flour trade is for a moderate rebound to 16.1 million tonnes amid some recovery in purchases by sub-Saharan Africa coupled with modest annual increases in some other regions, including some parts of Asia. However, it noted that flour imports by Iraq are likely to stay well below recent highs as local grain supplies are expected to remain at a relatively high level.
Exports by Turkey in the coming marketing year are expected to rebound following the removal of wheat import restrictions, “but will likely fall short of historical highs amid reduced buying from Iraq and potentially increased competition from Egypt in some markets.” The IGC forecasts Turkey’s 2025-26 flour exports to reach 4.7 million tonnes, about 900,000 higher than this year’s total.
Source: World Grain