Posted on March, 25, 2025 at 10:46 am
The Global Grain and Pulses Forum 2025 in Dubai gathered 1,200 delegates, fostering pivotal discussions on food security, global grain trade, and market dynamics. Key insights included Russia’s role in global grain exports, India’s growing pulses demand, and Turkey’s evolving wheat market. The forum also highlighted emerging opportunities like the BRICS Grain Exchange and Tunisia’s grain storage investments. Miller Magazine’s exclusive coverage captures the essence of this influential event.
The Global Grain and Pulses Forum 2025, held in Dubai, brought together nearly 1,200 delegates from over 40 countries, solidifying its position as one of the most significant platforms for global grain trade discussions. As a media partner of the event, Miller Magazine had exclusive insights into the high-level discussions and strategic networking that took place.
With an increasing number of companies using the UAE as a key trading base, the event provided a crucial platform for market leaders, traders, and policymakers to discuss the dynamics of global food security and grain supply chains.
The two-day event featured expert panels, networking sessions, and insightful discussions led by industry veterans. Discussions centered on ensuring sustainable and resilient grain supplies amid climate change, geopolitical shifts, and economic fluctuations. Beyond the insightful sessions, the forum emphasized the importance of networking, with dedicated time for business meetings, informal discussions, and deal-making opportunities.
During her speech at the forum, Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut underlined Russia’s commitment to global food security, not only through grain and legume exports but also by supporting partners with agricultural technologies. This includes the supply of seeds, plant protection products, machinery, and mineral fertilizers.
Lut said that Russia’s grain harvest is expected to reach 130 million tonnes in 2024, which will fully cover domestic demand while maintaining a strong export potential. The country is projected to export 55-57 million tonnes of grain this season.
Russia remains the largest wheat supplier to global markets, while its exports of legumes are also increasing. Last season, 4.2 million tonnes of legumes were exported, including 3.2 million tonnes of peas, making Russia a global leader in this sector. In total, Russian grain was exported to 109 countries in 2024, with the Middle East and Africa accounting for 70% of the total volume. The country’s export reach is expanding, with 11 new countries initiating trade partnerships and seven others resuming imports.
David Whitcomb, Head of Research at Peak Trading Research, outlined several key factors that will influence grain markets throughout 2025. He emphasized the impact of macroeconomic drivers such as U.S. dollar performance, Federal Reserve policies, and crude oil price movements on agricultural futures. In 2024, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive approach to inflation strengthened the dollar, putting downward pressure on commodity prices, including corn, wheat, and soybeans.
Whitcomb also discussed the potential influence of Donald Trump’s policies on the markets, particularly regarding tariffs and exchange rates. He noted that during Trump’s previous term, many of his pro-dollar and pro-tariff positions were already priced into the market before he took office.
Another critical factor Whitcomb highlighted was market structure, particularly hedge fund positioning. He explained that hedge funds are major price movers in agricultural markets, and their trading strategies significantly influence commodity prices. Recent hedge fund activity, particularly short-covering in wheat markets, has contributed to price fluctuations. Additionally, momentum traders—who rely on price trends rather than fundamental factors—can drive further volatility, as seen in recent rallies in coffee and wheat prices.
Finally, Whitcomb pointed out the importance of seasonal patterns in agricultural markets, particularly in wheat. Historically, wheat prices tend to rise in late March due to concerns over U.S. spring wheat production, as traders build risk premiums into their pricing models.
Following David Whitcomb’s insights into global market drivers, Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, Chairman of IAOM Eurasia, took the stage at Forum 2025 to provide an in-depth analysis of Turkey’s wheat production, trade trends, and market outlook. He highlighted that while Turkey has maintained a stable wheat planting area, the country’s wheat production has increased due to improvements in yield. However, Ulusoy pointed out that Turkey’s share in global wheat production has decreased from 3.5% to 2.5%, as more irrigated land has been allocated to other crops such as cotton and corn.
Turkey’s wheat imports peaked at 11.8 million tons in 2023 but fell to 8.3 million tons in 2023/24. Dr. Ulusoy projects only 2 million tons of imports for the current season, much lower than USDA’s 5-million-ton estimate, due to strict import regulations. Additionally, 1.2 million tons of wheat remain in bonded storage as buffer stock.
Despite being the top flour exporter, Turkey’s flour exports declined from 3.6 million tons to 3 million tons in 2024, while pasta exports remained stable at 1.4 million tons. Russia and Egypt have emerged as strong competitors, reducing Turkey’s market share.
The global flour trade has remained relatively stagnant, increasing only from 13 million tons to 16 million tons over the past 20 years, in contrast to rapid growth in wheat trade. Dr. Ulusoy explained that this stagnation is due to countries increasing their domestic milling capacity, reducing reliance on flour imports.
Ulusoy warned about the impact of low rainfall on Turkey’s wheat production, stating, “While a full-scale drought has not yet materialized, the risk remains. With 75% of Turkey’s wheat grown on non-irrigated land, rainfall is a critical factor. A warmer-than-usual March is expected, but dry conditions could persist, particularly in Southeast and Central Anatolia. If production drops to 18 million tons, wheat imports could rise to 9 million tons in the 2025/26 season, exceeding the usual 7 million tons.”
Shifting focus from Turkey’s wheat market, Igor Pavenskiy, Head of Agricultural Market Analysis at Rusagrotrans, offered a detailed analysis of Russian grain production and export prospects for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons. Russia’s grain harvest in 2024/25 reached 124 million tons (MT), with wheat production at 82.4 MMT, marking the lowest levels since 2021/22. Barley and corn yields also saw significant declines. However, Pavenskiy projected a rebound in 2025/26, with grain production expected to rise to 132.4 MT, including 84.6 MT of wheat, contingent on favorable weather conditions.
Despite improved winter crop conditions due to unseasonably warm weather, risks from spring droughts and potential frosts in key Russian regions could still impact yields. The global wheat export landscape is shifting, with total wheat exports from major suppliers, including Russia, the EU, and Ukraine, expected to decline by 10.4 MMT in 2024/25. However, this reduction has not resulted in price surges, due to weaker demand from Turkey, Iran, and China, alongside strong production from Australia and Argentina.
Pavenskiy also highlighted that Russia’s wheat exports to the Middle East are expected to drop, from 41% in 2022/23 to 23% in 2024/25, largely due to reduced shipments to Turkey and Iran. In contrast, exports to North Africa have increased, reaching 29% of Russia’s total wheat exports for 2024/25, driven by higher demand from Egypt, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia. Additionally, Sub-Saharan Africa’s share of Russian wheat exports has rebounded to 16%, with increased shipments to Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa.
With carry-out stocks projected to fall to 11 MT in 2024/25, Russian wheat exports are expected to decline to 41.5 MT in 2025/26, reflecting tightening supply and a slight uptick in domestic consumption. Pavenskiy emphasized that potential crop damage from drought and frost could push Russian wheat export prices to $250–270 per ton.
Gerald Masila, Executive Director of the Eastern Africa Grain Council, emphasized the potential of the BRICS Grain Exchange in reshaping global trade dynamics. “By linking major grain exporters like Russia, Brazil, and India with key importers such as China, South Africa, and East African nations, the platform can provide a structured and cost-effective trade mechanism,” he said. Masila highlighted several key benefits, including reduced trade costs through a centralized system, decreased reliance on Western markets, and resilience against sanctions by facilitating trade in local currencies. According to him, the initiative also promises stability in the supply chain through long-term contracts and stockpiling, along with investment in critical infrastructure such as ports, storage, and logistics facilities.
However, he acknowledged significant challenges that must be addressed for the BRICS Grain Exchange to function effectively. These include regulatory misalignment across member nations, currency volatility, logistical barriers in Africa and parts of Asia, and geopolitical tensions within the BRICS bloc. For African nations, the BRICS Grain Exchange presents a unique opportunity to secure more stable and diversified grain supplies. East African markets, in particular, could benefit by directly engaging as buyers, reducing dependency on traditional supply chains and strengthening regional food security.
Speaking at the Global Grain & Pulses Forum, Bimal Kothari, Chairman of the India Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA), highlighted India’s critical role in the global pulses market as the world’s largest producer, consumer, and importer. Despite producing around 27 million tonnes in fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and 26 million tonnes in FY 2022-23, India’s pulses output fell sharply to 24 million tonnes in FY 2023-24 due to the impact of El Niño. However, domestic demand continues to rise, reaching 32-33 million tonnes annually and projected to hit 40 million tonnes by 2030, driven by rising incomes, increased health consciousness, and the country’s predominantly vegetarian population.
India’s pulse production remains heavily dependent on monsoons, making it vulnerable to climate change. This production gap necessitates large-scale imports, exceeding 6.5 million tonnes in 2024 alone. To secure long-term supply, Kothari emphasized the potential of Russia as a key supplier of lentils, yellow peas, and chickpeas. He advocated for strengthening direct trade ties between Indian and Russian stakeholders, leveraging the Rupee-Ruble payment mechanism to reduce reliance on third currencies. If formalized, this trade could surpass one million tonnes annually, unlocking a $1 billion market opportunity for Russian exporters while bolstering India’s food security.
One of the key speakers at the forum was Salwa Ben Hadid Zouari, President and General Director of the Cereals Office of Tunisia, outlining the key dynamics of Tunisia’s grain sector. Tunisia cultivates an average of 1.2 million hectares of cereals, but production remains limited due to erratic rainfall and low yields, which range between 15-20 quintals per hectare. With an annual demand of 3.6 million tons, Tunisia is heavily reliant on imports, which exceed $1.1 billion per year.
The Cereals Office, under Zouari’s leadership, exclusively oversees grain distribution in Tunisia based on monthly quotas set by the Ministry of Trade. The country operates 23 milling facilities—seven dedicated flour mills, one semolina mill, and 15 mixed mills—with a total milling capacity of 14,000 tons per day. However, the utilization rate stands at 55%, processing around 2.3 million tons of wheat annually.
To reinforce grain storage and supply chain resilience, Tunisia is investing in infrastructure upgrades. Zouari highlighted plans to modernize 206,000 tons of existing silo capacity—74,000 tons at port facilities and 132,000 tons in inland storage. Additionally, 181,000 tons of new storage capacity will be developed, including 101,000 tons in port silos and 80,000 tons in inland reserves. These initiatives aim to enhance food security and ensure greater stability in the country’s grain sector.
Emily Afaribea Boahen, Executive Secretary of the Ghana Grains Council, highlighted Ghana’s potential as a key grain hub in West Africa. She emphasized the need to diversify imports by strengthening trade with Russia, reducing reliance on South American suppliers. However, challenges such as weak trade infrastructure, banking restrictions, uncertain shipping timelines, and limited vessel availability hinder procurement. Boahen called for alternative payment methods, better shipping solutions, and dedicated trade offices to facilitate smoother transactions. Strengthening Ghana-Russia trade ties, she noted, could enhance food security and price competitiveness.
In her presentation, following Emily Boahen, Sunchitsa Savovich, CEO of the Serbia Grains Association, discussed the collective role of Serbia, Romania, and Bulgaria in global grain production and trade. Together, these three countries account for 2.4% of global wheat production and 1.7% of the world’s corn production. While this share may seem modest compared to Russia’s 12% share in wheat production, the region remains a key player in ensuring global food security.
Savovich also emphasized the growing influence of the BRICS bloc in global agricultural markets, noting that it accounts for approximately 44% of global grain production. With an expanded membership, BRICS has the market size to sustain initiatives like the proposed BRICS Grain Exchange.
During his presentation at the forum, Gaurav Jain, Founder & Lead Analyst at AgPulse Analytica, addressed key uncertainties impacting the global pulses market, particularly regarding acreage, pricing, and trade policies. He provided a historical perspective, noting that in the 1960s, Russia and other former Soviet republics cultivated over 10 million hectares of pulses. However, today, this area has decreased to 5.6 million hectares, although there is potential for expansion to 6.5 million hectares. The availability of affordable pulses could boost global consumption, especially in regions with favorable soil, climate, and agricultural expertise.
A major area of concern is India’s trade policies, as several import regulations are set to expire in the next two months. Any changes in India’s approach to pulse imports could dramatically influence global trade dynamics. Jain also highlighted the growing demand for pulses in China. If pulses become more affordable in Siberia, the availability of pulses in inland China via rail routes could increase, further boosting consumption.
Source: Miller