LAGOS, NIGERIA — Corn, wheat, rice and sorghum consumption in Nigeria is expected to increase in 2025-26, driven by appreciation of the naira, slowing food price inflation and macroeconomic stabilization, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Wheat consumption is expected to increase 10% to 5.6 million tonnes. About 70% of the wheat flour produced is used to make bread, with the rest used in other wheat-based food like cakes, biscuits and other pastries. Bread demand has remained steady despite price hikes in 2023-24 for Africa's most populous country with about 228 million people.

 

“In contrast to rice and other staples that are consumed with other ingredients, many consumers consider bread as a complete meal on its own,” the FAS said. “Consumers have adopted bread consumption as a coping mechanism due to challenging food price inflation.”

Wheat production is estimated at 135,000 tonnes, about a 13% increase compared to the projection for 2024-25. This increase is attributed to expansion of area planted and yield. Imports are estimated at 6.1 million tonnes, an increase of 5%.

Corn consumption is expected to increase 9% to 12.2 million tonnes due to a moderation in prices from increased production and high corn imports. During the most recent scarce corn period, poultry producers switched to sorghum, millet, and cassava flakes for feed. Consumers who sourced corn substitutes during the shortage may carry on with these practices thereby increasing corn’s accessibility and affordability.

Production in 2024-25 increased 9% to 12 million tonnes, with farmers motivated to expand planting due to two years of shortages and high prices.

Rice production is estimated to decrease by 5% to 7.9 million tonnes and imports are expected to increase by 16% to 2.8 million tonnes in 2025-26 due to favorable import pricing compared to domestic paddy.

At the same time, rice consumption is expected to increase 9% to 8.3 million tonnes due to an expected decline in domestic prices.

“India’s return to the export market and the reduction of export duties on parboiled brown husked rice is expected to exert downward pressure for the Nigeria market,” the FAS said.

Imports for 2025-26 are estimated at 2.8 million tonnes, a 16% increase compared to the prior-year estimate of 2.4 million tonnes.

Sorghum production is expected to decrease 6% in 2025-26 to 7.3 million tonnes, while consumption will grow 7% to 7.2 million tonnes.

“This estimated increase is attributed to the popularity of sorghum utilization as an alternative to corn in animal feed and use by beverage, cereal and confectionery manufacturers,” the FAS said.

Despite the recent decline in domestic corn prices, feed millers are continuing to experiment with blending sorghum into animal feed.

Sorghum is consumed in various forms, either as porridge, in a dough eaten with soup, fermented pancakes, flour paste, or roasted grain. Traditionally, Nigerians use fermented sorghum grain for malting and producing local brewing products.

Source: World Grain