Posted on April, 8, 2025 at 08:28 am
Higher planting and excellent growing conditions have India in line for a third consecutive record wheat harvest in marketing year 2025-26, while rice dips slightly and corn continues to climb, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The FAS forecasts wheat production at 115 million tonnes from 32.6 million hectares, up from 113.2 million tonnes on 31.8 million hectares in 2024-25, assuming normal weather through harvest at the end of April. India, the worlds’ most populous country at 1.45 billion people, is the world’s No. 2 wheat producer after China.
“After several years of early onset summers causing heat stress at the time of maturity for late planted wheat, farmers pushed for timely planting and opted for more heat tolerant varieties recommended by the state governments,” the FAS said. “The arrival of winter temperatures by mid-November, along with adequate irrigation water availability, supported the wheat crop at the critical growth stages.”
The FAS is projecting food-seed-industrial (FSI) wheat consumption in 2025-26 higher at 109 million tonnes, recovering after last year’s slump to 104 million tonnes. Forecast record production, if realized, will ensure sufficient domestic supplies and steady prices.
The organized milling sector is composed of 1,300 to 1,400 medium-to-large flour mills with milling capacity of about 28 million to 30 million tonnes annually. Most mills operate at 55% to 60% of their capacity, the FAS said, processing about 18 million to 20 million tonnes of wheat annually. Most wheat is milled for home flour use by the unorganized sector, mostly small neighborhood flour mills.
“Consumption is likely to recover from last year’s drop, but export bans on wheat and wheat products are likely to continue due to inflation concerns,” the FAS said. “Despite relatively weak global wheat prices, high import duties (40%) continue to constraint import prospects for wheat and wheat products in the upcoming season.”
Rice and wheat are the two focus staple food crops for India’s food security policy cornering the major share of government’s price support allocation and other domestic agriculture support programs.
After nine consecutive record harvests, rice production in 2025-26 is expected to dip to 143 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes year on year. Exports are forecast at a record 24 million tonnes (15 million coarse rice, 6 million basmati rice and 3 million broken rice) on sufficient supplies and competitive prices as the government liquidates excess rice stocks in the domestic market.
Rice is the main staple food crop cultivated across the country contributing nearly 42% of the country’s grain production. India and China are annually the top two rice producing nations, and India is the top exporting country.
Rice consumption and residual is forecast by the FAS at 124 million tonnes in 2025-26, about 2.5% higher than last year on expected higher supplies of subsidized government rice and expected near-record production. More than 90% of farmers are smallholders (less than two hectares) retaining nearly half of their produce for home consumption and seed use.
Corn production in India in 2025-26 is forecast at 42 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes year on year, supported by growing demand for corn for the ethanol blending program.
Corn production has shown an upward trend over the last two decades on steady increases in planted area and productivity from the improved hybrid seeds, the FAS said. Production growth has been driven by increasing domestic demand from feed manufacturers, the starch industry and the ethanol industry since 2023-24.
Total consumption is seen reaching 42.7 million tonnes in 2025-26, compared to 40.3 million tonnes the previous year and 38.9 million tonnes in 2023-24.
“While planting in 2024-25 reached a record 11.5 million hectares, experts report corn area to continue growing the next few years if the government maintains the existing premium pricing of corn-based ethanol,” the FAS said. “India’s growing economy and expanding middle class continues to fuel demand for animal protein, primarily poultry and dairy products.”
Source: World Grain