Posted on April, 10, 2025 at 05:00 pm
Planted area in Brazil continues to grow, and the result as the first-crop harvest nears completion is yet another uptick in the forecast for record grain production, which is now seen reaching 330.3 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season, according to the National Supply Company (Conab).
In its seventh Harvest Update released April 10, Conab projected planted area at 81.7 million hectares, an increase of 1.7 million hectares over 2023-24 that is expected to push production up 32.6 million tonnes year on year as weather conditions continue to be favorable.
“The positive outlook for the weather also supports the development of crops in the second harvest,” Conab said. “In this scenario, a recovery in productivity of 8.6% is expected, estimated at 4,045 kilos per hectare (kg/ha).”
Soybeans are leading the way for the world’s largest exporter of the oilseed with production forecast at 167.9 million tonnes in 2024-25, up 20.1 million tonnes from the previous year.
The Central-West, the main producing region of the grain, is expected to notch a new record in average crop productivity with 3,808 kg/ha, surpassing the 2022-23 cycle, Conab said. In Mato Grosso, the harvest already has reached 99.5% of the planted area with average productivity reaching 3,897 kg/ha, the highest ever recorded in that state. A similar scenario is seen in Goiás, where harvesting work has reached 97% of the area with a productivity of 4,122 kg/ha.
With the soybean harvest well underway, the planting of the second corn crop is close to completion. Total production of corn, taking into account the three crop cycles, is estimated by Conab at 124.7 million tonnes in 2024-25, an increase of 9 million tonnes from 2023-24.
The second corn crop alone is expected to produce 97.9 million tonnes, the result of a larger planted area, estimated at 16.9 million hectares, combined with a 5.5% recovery in the average productivity forecast at 5,794 kg/ha.
With an expectation of 87 million tonnes consumed in the domestic market, exports are projected at 34 million tonnes. Even with the increase in domestic consumption, the final stock should reach approximately 7.4 million tonnes.
The rice harvest has surpassed 60% of the planted area, and weather conditions in the main producing regions, along with farmer management, have supported crop development, Conab noted. Average productivity should recover by 7.2%, estimated at 7,061 kg/ha on planted area up 7%, to 1.72 million hectares. As a result, production is projected to increase 14.7% to 12.1 million tonnes.
Source: World Grain