U.S. corn stocks down and acres expected to rise from a year ago

The USDA “Prospective Plantings Report” that was released on March 31 projected a 5% increase in 2025 U.S. corn acreage compared to a year ago, along with a 4% decrease in 2025 soybean acreage from a year earlier. The USDA planting intentions numbers came in slightly higher than the grain trade expected for corn and similar to trade estimates for soybeans. The USDA “Quarterly Grain Stocks Report” was also released on March 31, which lists the estimated U.S. grain inventory as of March 1, 2025, for both “on-farm” and commercial grain storage. The USDA estimates for U.S. corn and soybean inventories came in near the average stocks estimates of the grain traders.

The USDA prospective planting acreage is based on survey data collected from about 72,000 crop producers in early March. Total U.S. crop acreage was listed at 224.2 million acres expected to be planted to corn, soybeans, and wheat in 2025, which up slightly from 223.8 million acres in 2024. The USDA estimates for intended 2025 U.S. corn and soybean acreage was viewed as somewhat “bearish” for “new crop” corn futures prices, meaning lower price expectations, and was viewed as mainly “neutral” for soybean futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).

Typically, these late March USDA Reports are very critical to farm operators and grain traders due to their impact on grain market prices in the spring and early summer months. During these months, many farm operators try to sell remaining grain inventories from the previous growing season, as well as look for opportunities to forward price a portion of the anticipated crop for the current year. In a majority of years, corn and soybean prices usually reach their “peak-price” during the period from April until June, which is why these reports are so important.

Highlights from the March 31 st USDA Planting Intentions Report:
Corn
The planting intentions report indicated that just over 95.3 million acres of corn are expected to be planted in the U.S. in 2025, which is an increase of 4.7 million acres or 5.1% from the 2024 corn acreage of 90.6 million acres. The 2025 U.S. corn acreage would also be above the 2023 corn acreage of 94.6 million acres. The highest corn acreage recorded in recent decades in the March USDA survey was 97.3 million acres in 2012. The current USDA corn acreage estimate was above the estimates of most grain traders. Based on the report, 2025 planted corn acreage is likely to increase in most of the major corn production states. Following is the estimated 2025 corn acreage and the expected increase from 2024: Iowa at 13.5 million acres (+4.7%); Illinois at 11.1 million acres (+2.8%); Nebraska at 10.5 million acres (+5.5%); Minnesota at 8.6 million acres (+4.9%); Indiana at 5.4 million acres (+3.8%); Missouri at 3.8 million acres (+10.1%); Kansas at 6.4 million acres (+1.6%); South Dakota at 6.3 million acres (+6.8%); North Dakota at 4.2 million acres (+6.3%); and Wisconsin at 3.95 million acres (+5.3%). Ohio at 3.25 million acres was the only major corn producing state with a decrease in expected corn acres (-4.4%).

Soybeans
Based on the estimates in the March 31st Planting Intentions Report, U.S. soybean acreage in 2025 is projected at 83.5 million acres, which represents a decrease of 3.5 million acres from a year ago. The 2025 U.S. soybean acreage estimate compares to 87 million acres in 2024, 83.6 million acres in 2023, 87.4 million acres in 2022, 87.2 million acres in 2021, and the record 90.2 million acres in 2017. The highest decrease in the estimated 2025 soybean acreage was in Iowa with an expected decrease of 450,000 acres, followed closely by Minnesota and North Dakota with decreases of 400,000 acres each, South Dakota with a decrease of 350,000 acres, and both Illinois and Nebraska with decreases of 300,000 acres. Smaller decreases in 2025 soybean acreage are likely to occur in Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Ohio was the only major producing state to show a slight increase in anticipated soybean acreage for 2025.

Wheat
The intended total U.S. wheat acreage for 2025 is estimated at 45.4 million acres, which is down 2% from 46.1 million acres in 2024 and trails 49.6 million acres in 2023. Spring wheat acreage for 2025 was estimated at just over 10 million acres, which is down from 10.6 million acres a year ago. Spring wheat acres are expected to increase slightly in Minnesota, but decrease in North Dakota and stay the same in South Dakota.

Corn
The total U.S. corn stocks on March 1, 2025, were listed at over 8.15 billion bushels, which is down 2% from a year earlier, and were slightly below the average grain trade estimate. The report indicated that farmers were carrying 11% or 579,000 less bushels of corn inventory in on-farm storage in 2025, as compared to a year earlier. Approximately 55% of the total U.S. corn stocks are being held in on-farm storage, which compares to 61% a year ago. Another positive in the USDA grain stocks report was that the implied corn usage from December 2024 through February 2025 was up about 2.6% compared to a year earlier. The somewhat favorable corn stocks numbers helped offset the potential negative market impacts that could have resulted from the expected increase in 2025 U.S. corn acreage. Farmers are hoping for a rally in the cash corn market in the coming weeks to liquidate some of the remaining 2024 corn inventory that is still in storage.

Soybeans
Soybean stocks on March 1, 2025, were listed at just under 1.91 billion bushels, which is up 4% from a year ago, and is comparable to the total soybean stocks on March 1, 2023. About 46% of the total soybean stocks were held in on-farm storage. The total U.S. soybean usage from December 2024 through February 2025 was estimated at 1.19 billion bushels, which was nearly the same as a year earlier. The March 1 soybean stocks estimate came in very near the average estimate of grain traders. The higher levels of grain stocks somewhat offsets the expected decrease in 2025 soybean acreage. This fact, together with the tariff concerns, may limit any substantial increases in the CBOT soybean futures prices in the coming weeks.

Wheat
Total wheat stocks on March 1, 2025, were listed at nearly 1.24 billion bushels, which is up 14% from March 1, 2024, and was the second year in a row of substantial increases wheat stocks.

Approximately 25% or just over 307,000 bushels of the total wheat stocks were held in on-farm storage. The implied U.S. wheat usage in the past quarter was 336 million bushels, which was up about 1% from the same quarter a year ago.

The March 31st USDA report was based on producer surveys of planting intentions, as of March 1; however, there is potential for these planting intentions to be adjusted slightly when final planting takes place. The improved margins and stronger crop insurance spring price for corn has likely encouraged the potential for more corn acres in 2025; however, any significant delays in spring planting could encourage an increase in soybean acreage. In the past 21 years, final corn acreage has increased above the prospective March 1 planting estimate in 12 years and decreased in nine years.

Source: AG Week