Posted on April, 16, 2025 at 04:45 pm
Drought conditions have eased, but dryness endures in the top winter wheat production state of Kansas, where wheat conditions worsened in the latest week.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its April 10 Agriculture in Drought report on the latest US Drought Monitor, said 32% of US winter wheat areas were in drought, improving from 39% a week earlier and compared with 22% a year ago.
The USDA’s drought map indicated most winter wheat growing in drought was in the US Plains stretching from North Dakota to Texas. The primary soft winter wheat production areas of the Central states and eastern United States were largely drought free with a few pockets of moderate drought areas in Illinois and Michigan and some larger areas of abnormal dryness in those states plus Indiana, Virginia and the Carolinas.
In Kansas, 68% of winter wheat was growing in moderate drought and 2% in severe drought as of April 8, an improvement from 73% moderate and 2% severe a week earlier, the USDA said. In South Dakota, wheat areas in drought improved to 92% after sitting at 100% for the past four months. Elsewhere in the production region, wheat area in drought totaled 26% in Texas (53% as of April 1), 5% in Colorado (5%), 74% in Nebraska (74%) and 11% in Montana (9%).
“Drought remains a concern, particularly in HRW-producing areas,” said Andrew Sowell, agricultural economist in the Crops Branch, Market and Trade Economics Division at the USDA’s Economic Research Service in the March 13 issue of the monthly Wheat Outlook. “US winter wheat is emerging from its winter dormancy. Good-to-excellent ratings show improvement from last year in Kansas, Washington, Colorado and Idaho, but ratings in most other major producing states are lower.”
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While ratings are better year over year in some states, week-over-week winter wheat conditions were a mixed bag in the latest Crop Progress report from the USDA. Kansas winter wheat as of April 13 was rated 4% very poor, 14% poor, 39% fair, 38% good and 5% excellent. That was down eight percentage points from 51% good-to-excellent on April 6 and compared with 49% good-to-excellent on March 30.
Good-to-excellent winter wheat conditions as of April 13 were 43% in Oklahoma (42% a week earlier), 23% in Texas (26%), 57% in Colorado (63%), 30% (all good) in Nebraska (37%), 22% (all good) in South Dakota (18%) and 59% in Montana (59%).
Last week, “rain fell in wheat-growing areas of Kansas, Texas, Nebraska and South Dakota,” US Wheat Associates’ weekly price report said April 11. However, “more moisture is needed as the 2025 wheat crop develops. Cold temperatures in Kansas and Texas last week caused concern, but no frost damage was reported.”
Soils in the Plains were dry during planting season last fall. A lengthy period with minimal to no precipitation followed, generating concern in the trade about emergence and development of the crop. In Kansas, multiple rounds of heavy rain in November alleviated some of those concerns. Some places in the state set a record for the wettest November. Producers were more comfortable with moisture levels in the crop as it slid into winter dormancy.
For the most part, grain traders report farmers and elevator operators in the western production area remain confident in a crop rapidly greening up and pulling out of dormancy. Still, dryness has reared up again, and growers were hoping for moisture in any volume to keep the wheat developing.
Winter wheat in the heading stage of development by April 13 was 13% in Oklahoma (7% as the recent five-year average for the date) and 38% in Texas (33%). Subsoil moisture profiles rated adequate to surplus by that date was 45% in Kansas, 62% in Oklahoma, 44% in Texas and 57% in Colorado. Production area states with no surplus topsoil moisture had adequate ratings for 21% in Nebraska, 20% in South Dakota and 36% in Montana.
Source: World Grain