Posted on April, 24, 2025 at 01:05 am
Wheat traders spent much of the first few months of 2025 with their focus firmly directed toward geopolitics, whether the prospects for the Black Sea region, or the constantly changing tariff policy of the United States and its effect on factors like currency. But now, with developing crops needing the right weather conditions to maximize yield, the emphasis is back on crop progress and the weather forecast.
“While US tariffs are still in the picture, especially because of its impact on currency and trade flows, as always at this time of year, market attention is on weather and crop conditions,” Gabriel Odiase, analyst, cereals and oilseeds, Britain’s Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board, said in an April 17 report. “US and Russian crop conditions remain a key watch point for markets and price movements.”
Odiase added that “arguably, the prospects of improving weather in the US has been one of the largest bearish factors on markets this week.”
“Beneficial rains are also forecast in key European cropping regions of France and Germany,” he said.
In its Grain Market Report of April 17, the International Grains Council (IGC) said global wheat export prices exhibited two-sided trends.
“Late-March declines against the backdrop of progressing Black Sea ceasefire talks were mostly recouped thereafter, aided by US dollar weakness and spillover strength from maize,” the IGC explained, reporting a net month-on-month drop of 1% in wheat prices, with mixed changes across underlying origins.
“Although the USDA’s unexpectedly small projection for domestic 2025-26 all-wheat plantings offered support, as did currency movements, US prices dropped month on month on slowing export sales and improving weather for the HRW crop,” the IGC said. “Sentiment in EU markets (France, Germany) remained generally weak, as beneficial rains boosted crop prospects in parts of Europe, while a sharp appreciation of the euro exacerbated concerns about export competitiveness.”
Tight availabilities and a strong ruble buoyed prices in Russia, “with attention focused on spring fieldwork,” the IGC said. “New crop values were highly nominal and quoted only for private negotiations.”
The IGC added that seasonally brisk export activity led to firmer quotations in Australia and Argentina.
The IGC forecast world 2025-26 wheat output at a record 806.4 million tonnes, up 1% from 2024-25.
“Buoyed mainly by an anticipated rebound in the EU, cumulative exporter production could rise by 5 million tonnes, to 391 million, potentially the most since 2022-23,” the IGC said, having increased its figure for 2024-25 EU output by 700,000 tonnes from the forecast it made in March, giving a EU wheat crop of “a larger than average 133.6 million tonnes, up by 3% from the prior year’s lowly total.”
In the USDA’s Grain: World Markets and Trade report, published on April 10, the Foreign Agricultural Service said US quotes dropped for most classes since the March WASDE (the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report) based on diminishing weather risks for dormant winter wheat and weak global demand, while major global wheat exporter quotes were mixed during the same period.
“Argentine quotes gained $8 per tonne on diminishing exportable supplies after their post-harvest export peak,” the FAS said. “Russian quotes gained $7 per tonne with depleted supplies following a strong export season.
“EU quotes were up $6 per tonne on strong exports to the Middle East and North Africa. Australian quotes fell $2 per tonne on continued strong exportable supplies and exports, while US quotes lost $1 per tonne on improving weather and weak export prospects.”
Source: World Grain