Posted on April, 28, 2025 at 10:21 am
Despite the global tariff chaos in the background, canola futures in April seemed to weather the storm in a steady uptrend as tightening supply projections and the need to ration demand provide support.
But same can’t be said for Canada’s largest crop: wheat.
Both the futures and Prairie cash bids for wheat have found themselves under pressure, with little supportive news on the horizon.
Wheat futures charts have been hard pressed to see much momentum on any rally attempts. Spring wheat hovers around the US$6.00 per bushel area and hard red winter wheat is about 50 cents below that.
July spring wheat is stuck in a range between US$5.75 to US$6.50 per bushel, while hard red winter wheat is at the bottom of a range from US$5.40 to US$6.25. Chicago soft wheat finds itself in a sideways range between roughly US$5.20 to US$6.20 in the July contract.
North America: The general bearishness pervading the wheat market comes despite both recent downgrades in quality rating for the U.S. winter wheat crop and a smaller acreage base. Quality ratings dipped to 45 per cent good-to-excellent in the latest weekly report. Conditions are expected to improve though, with enough moisture in the long-range forecasts to limit weather concerns.
Total U.S. area of spring and winter wheat combined is forecast to be down two per cent from 2024 at 45.4 million acres (18.37 million hectares). That would be the second lowest on records going back to 1919.
Canada: There’s a long growing season ahead for Canada’s wheat crop, but the early call from Statistics Canada is for planted area to be up 2.6 per cent from 2025 at 24.5 million acres (9.9 million hectares). However, the latest strength in canola futures and relative weakness in wheat bids may see a few last-minute acreage shifts.
Europe: European wheat futures hit contract lows in late April, acting as an anchor on North American prices. Much of the weakness there was tied to improving crop prospects.
Crop monitoring service MARS raised its forecast for this year’s soft wheat yield in the European Union. It’s now estimating average soft wheat yields at 6.03 tonnes per hectare. That would be up eight per cent from 2024, when heavy rains damaged fields and gave France its smallest wheat crop in four decades.
The European Commission released its own production estimates on April 24, estimating the 2025 EU common wheat crop at 126.5 million tonnes. While that was down by 200,000 tonnes from its initial outlook in March, it would still be up nearly 15 million tonnes on the year.
Source: Manitoba