Posted on May, 5, 2025 at 03:40 pm
There were several crucial agricultural data releases during April, despite all the public holidays. For example, on 30 April, the Crop Estimates Committee released its third production forecast for South Africa’s 2024-25 summer crop production season.
There are generally 10 releases a season, which means there are seven more monthly updates to come. But, on the third estimate, we begin to feel more comfortable about the accuracy of the data.
At a time when we were worrying about excessive rains, predictably, a lot more attention was paid to these figures. Notably, the Crop Estimates Committee slightly increased South Africa’s 2024-25 summer production estimate by 0.05% from March 2025 to 18.01 million tonnes.
This is a mild uptick but it remains crucial when some are concerned that we might see a downward revision of the crop because of heavy rains. This estimate comprises yellow and white maize, sunflower seeds, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.
Essentially, this harvest estimate is 16% higher than the 2023-24 production season, representing a decent recovery from drought. Although the overall production figure was mildly up, there were some adjustments in the various commodities.
For example, the maize harvest is up 1% from the March 2025 estimate to 14.66 million tonnes. There is an increase in white and yellow maize, with harvests now at 7.75 million tonnes and 6.91 million tonnes, respectively. Overall, the maize harvest of 14.66 million tonnes is up 14% year-on-year, primarily benefiting from expected yield improvements on an annual basis.
Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of about 11.8 million tonnes, which implies that the country will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
Regarding oilseeds, the soybean harvest is estimated at 2.3 million tonnes, down 2,5% from March 2025, but still up 26% year-over-year. This monthly downward revision reflects concerns about yield damage following the recent rains.
Still, the annual uptick is mainly a result of better yields from last year’s drought. We see a similar pattern with sunflower seeds, down 4% from March 2024 but still up 18% from the previous season, estimated at 742 800 tonnes.
The groundnut harvest is estimated at 64 595 tonnes (up 24% year-on-year), sorghum production is estimated at 137 970 tonnes (up 41% year-on-year) and the dry beans harvest is at 70 540 tonnes (up 40%). The base effects also boost the significant annual increases, given the poor harvest we recorded in 2023-24 during the drought.
Overall, this is shaping to be a better agricultural season and a year of recovery. Moreover, the improving weather prospects, with sunnier and drier conditions expected, will help support the harvest from this month onwards.
The excessive rains of the past few weeks probably caused quality damage in some regions. Still, we suspect this problem is limited to a few regions. Thus, we remain optimistic about the overall national grains and oilseed harvest. We will learn more about the extent of the damage when the harvest gains momentum in the coming weeks and months.
From a consumer perspective, the crop quality issues in a few regions are not a significant concern. There is a broad consensus that this is a recovery season. Thus, we continue to observe generally softening commodity prices, driven by the expected large harvest, which bodes well for a comforting food inflation path in the year’s second half.
This quarter — specifically for grain-related products in the food inflation basket — could still reflect the effects of the recent higher prices and tight grain supplies at the start of this year before we receive the new season’s deliveries.
Source: Mail and Guardian