Posted on May, 13, 2025 at 06:01 pm
Our monthly Food Security Monitor is one-way AGRA makes data available to key stakeholders to underpin evidence-based decision-making. Highlights from the April 2025 Food Security Monitor are summarised below:
Food Commodity Prices Updates
In East Africa, Kenya reports the highest prices in USD across the four monitored commodities, with maize reaching USD 483/MT, reflecting a 7% month-on-month increase due to reduced domestic supply and increased demand from animal feed millers for the same maize1. As a result, the Kenyan Government approved importation of 5.5 million bags of yellow maize with 50% import duty waiver designated exclusively for animal feeds production2 to ease the pressure. Ethiopia, on the other hand, recorded the lowest maize price among the five East African countries at USD 281/MT, while Tanzania saw a slight price decline of 4% to USD 307/MT, largely attributed to currency depreciation and the release of carryover stocks from the previous season. These price fluctuations were primarily driven by stock shortages resulting from seasonal variations and heightened demand for maize from the southern region. Additionally, concerns persist regarding future food crop commodity prices due to dry conditions affecting main season crops in parts of Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Rwanda, and Burundi.
In Southern Africa, maize prices have declined across Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique, primarily due to an influx of the newly harvested crop, which has increased market supply and driven price reductions. Malawi experienced a significant 44% month-on-month price drop in USD, marking a notable shift for a country that had previously encountered steep price increases. Likewise, Zambia and Mozambique recorded declines of 12% and 10%, bringing maize prices to USD 325/MT and USD 451/MT, respectively. Despite this overall downward trend, Malawi continues to report the highest maize price among the three countries, standing at USD 543/MT.
In West Africa, maize and rice prices in USD rose in general, largely driven by currency depreciation. Despite a cereal export ban, Ghana recorded the highest rice price at USD 1,012/MT, up from USD 948/MT in March 2025. Nigeria posted the lowest rice and maize prices at USD 715/MT and USD 319/MT, respectively. Conversely, Togo has the highest maize price at USD 521/MT, up from USD 495/Mt. The decline in maize prices in Nigeria in USD is also reflective of the trends seen in local currencies, with prices falling by 4.15%, 21.95% and 30.55% over the past one, three and six months, respectively. Nigeria's price decrease is attributable to the Government's issuance of a tariff moratorium on the crop, resulting in an increase in supply from imports. The rising cost of cereals in most parts of the region is driven by multiple factors, such as a weakened national currency, elevated transportation expenses, shortages in cereal production, and market disruptions caused by conflicts in various regions.
Food Security Updates
In East Africa, nearly 12.3 million people across Kenya, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes, according to the April 2025 report from the East and Central Africa Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG). This represents an increase of nearly 2.3 million people over March 2025, driven by the ongoing conflicts, the ongoing influx of returnees from Sudan, and the shifting funding landscape caused by USAID funding cuts, which is impacting the food and nutrition security situation in the country. Meanwhile, the number of people facing an insufficient food consumption (IFC) situation across Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda remain unchanged for the past three consecutive months, at 45.3 million people. Similarly, in Southern Africa, the number of people facing IFC situation across Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe has remained unchanged at 22.2 million in April. The current state of insufficient food consumption, however, remains below what was recorded in April 2024.
In West Africa, the number of people facing IFC across seven countries -Burkina Faso, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Togo- has significantly dropped by 16.1 million people, mainly driven by 16.28% reduction in Nigeria. As a result, the current level of IFC across the seven West African countries is lower than the 158.5 million reported in April 2024. Nonetheless, the Cadre Harmonisé (CH) latest assessment for the March–May 2025 period indicates that 36.8 million people are facing food insecurity at CH Phase 3 or above (Crisis and worse), including 1.6 million in Phase 4 (Emergency) - the highest level ever recorded for this time of year. Notable increases in food insecurity were observed in Ghana (+106%), Guinea (+84%), and Côte d’Ivoire (+34%). The CH analysis attributes this worsening situation to a combination of conflict and displacement, economic vulnerability, persistently high food prices, and recent severe flooding. It underscores the urgent need for sustained action, adequate funding, and stronger structural responses to address the growing crisis.
Food Trade Updates
• The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and Zep Re (PTA Reinsurance company) have launched a new platform, called the Trans-Africa Bond Alliance (TABA) which offers a unified bond system for cross-border traders. The platform aims to enhance the continent’s insurance capacity and enable more African businesses to participate in regional trade. With TABA, traders can transport goods using a single transit bond, effectively reducing delays and cutting costs linked to multiple bonds.
• The United States of America, under the administration of President Donald Trump, intends to terminate America's funding for the African Development Fund, the concessional branch of the African Development Bank. This decision, revealed just days before the bank's annual meeting in Abidjan, could lead to significant repercussions.
• Kenya and Ethiopia have signed a groundbreaking agreement to facilitate cross-border trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) framework. The deal establishes designated border trade zones—extending 100 kilometres into Kenya and 50 kilometres into Ethiopia, where traders can conduct transactions of up to USD 1,000 per trip, with a limit of four trips per month. Trade within these zones will be restricted to a jointly approved list of goods.
• Malawi and Tanzania have lifted reciprocal trade restrictions that had affected the flow of agricultural goods between the two countries. In March, Malawi imposed bans on several Tanzanian agricultural products, including rice, flour, ginger, bananas, and maize. In retaliation, Tanzania halted all agricultural imports including restrictions on transit goods. However, following a bilateral diplomatic meeting on 2nd May, Malawi and Tanzania agreed to remove the restrictions, restoring the free movement of goods across their borders.
• Nigeria has formally gazetted and submitted its ECOWAS Schedule of Tariff Offers for Trade in Goods under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to the AfCFTA Secretariat. This gazetted schedule lays the groundwork for implementing zero tariffs on 90% of tariff lines, enhancing the competitiveness and market access of Nigerian goods across the African continent.
Source: ReliefWeb