Posted on May, 16, 2025 at 09:52 am
The US Department of Agriculture in its May 12 Crop Production report forecast 2025 winter wheat production at 1,382 million bus, up 2.4% from 1,349 million bus in 2024, as an expected higher average yield more than offset slightly lower harvested acreage.
The average winter wheat yield in 2025 was forecast at 53.7 bus per acre, up 2 bus from 51.7 bus in 2024. Area harvested for grain was forecast at 25.7 million acres, down 1.5% from the prior year, with 77% of planted area expected to be harvested for grain compared with 78% in 2024.
Hard red winter wheat production was forecast at 784,268,000 bus, up 13,829,000 bus, or 1.8%, from 770,439,000 bus in 2024. Soft red winter wheat production was forecast at 344,673,000 bus, up 2,234,000 bus, or 0.7%, from 342,439,000 bus in 2024. Soft white winter wheat outturn was forecast at 232,084,000 bus, up 15,591,000 bus, or 7%, from 216,493,000 bus last year, with hard white winter wheat at 20,585,000 bus, up 1,026,000 bus, or 5%, from 19,559,000 bus.
The USDA winter wheat forecast was above the average of trade expectations, as were USDA hard red and soft red and white winter wheat forecasts.
Winter wheat production in Kansas was forecast at 345,000,000 bus, up 37,550,000 bus, or 12%, from 307,450,000 bus in 2024. Oklahoma production was forecast at 107,250,000 bus, down 1,050,000 bus, or 1%, from 108,300,000 bus in 2024. Of the seven major hard red winter wheat states, production was forecast higher than in 2024 in Colorado, Montana and Kansas but lower in Nebraska, South Dakota, Texas and Oklahoma.
The USDA said in its assessment of the May 6 US Drought Monitor that 88% of Nebraska wheat was in areas of drought, 59% of South Dakota, 55% of Montana and 41% of Kansas.
The Wheat Quality Council’s hard red winter wheat tour will run May 12-15, mainly across the state of Kansas.
KC hard red winter wheat futures closed down about 6¢ to 9¢ a bu following the 11:00 a.m. Central Daylight Time release of the USDA data, with Chicago soft red winter wheat futures down about 5¢ to 6¢ a bu and Minneapolis spring wheat futures down about 1¢ to 9¢ a bu. Several months on all three markets set fresh contract lows.
Winter durum production in Arizona was forecast at 4,972,000 bus, down 1,350,000 bus, or 21%, from 6,322,000 bus in 2024, and in California at 1,800,000 bus, down 684,000 bus, or 28%, from 2,484,000 bus.
In its May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the USDA projected 2025 all US wheat production at 1,921 million bus, down 50 million bus from 2024-25, indicating 2025 spring wheat production near 539 million bus, up 17 million bus from 2024.
Source: Baking Business