Posted on May, 19, 2025 at 06:30 pm
The lack of moisture in the soil raises concerns about the further development of all crops – both grain and oilseeds. Throughout Ukraine, from February to April, no more than 80% of the precipitation norm has fallen, and in some regions – only about half of the norm, according to analysts from “UkrAgroConsult”.
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“These rains were enough to moisten the topsoil, which is important for the initial development of plants. However, considering the previous dry autumn and snowless winter, the deeper layers of soil (meter layer) remain dry. This will be critical for plants in their later stages of development.
Our pessimistic scenario is based on the assumption of no rainfall in May. In this case, early grain crops (wheat, barley) could potentially lose about 10% of their yield,” they explain.
The delay in planting due to the April frost has led to a very narrow window for planting late crops: corn, soybeans, and sunflowers need to be planted simultaneously and very quickly due to a sharp increase in temperature and a lack of moisture. There are risks that in conditions like “I manage to plant one thing,” the choice between corn and oilseeds will be made in favor of oilseeds, experts suggest.
“The moisture deficit currently observed in Ukraine may not only affect the yield of oilseeds but also lead to a redistribution of areas of spring crops – sunflower and soybeans,” predict “UkrAgroConsult”.
In dry conditions, sunflowers have obvious agronomic advantages over soybeans: deep roots, higher drought resistance, less water demand, and more stable yields in stressful conditions. In combination with the profitability level of these crops in the 2024/25 MY, this makes sunflower more attractive than soybeans.
“Therefore, there is a possibility that the area planted with sunflowers will increase even more than expected in the base scenario, at the expense of soybean area,” experts predict.
Source: Agro News