Posted on May, 22, 2025 at 11:53 pm
After a decade-long decline, global ending stocks for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) are projected to increase slightly in the 2025-26 marketing year, according to the latest Grain Market Report from the International Grains Council (IGC).
The IGC forecast ending stocks at 585 million tonnes in its May 22 report, up 4 million tonnes from the previous year, including a 15-million-tonne increase among the world’s top exporters.
The last time a year-on-year increase in ending stocks was recorded was in 2016-17.
Total grains production is projected to expand by 3% in 2025-26, to a record 2.375 billion tonnes, the Council said.
“In addition to predicted solid gains in the European Union, output is also seen higher in Argentina and the United States,” the IGC said. “Increases in feed, industrial and food uses are forecast to boost global uptake to 2.372 billion tonnes, up by 2% year on year.”
Tied mainly to increased wheat shipments, total trade could reach 428 million tonnes, up by 2% from the previous season's unusually small total, the IGC said.
Corn output in 2025-26 is seen increasing by 3.5% to 1.277 billion tonnes.
Boosted by larger South American crops, 2025-26 global soybean production is forecast at a peak of 428 million tonnes, up 2% year on year, with firmer demand for soybean products across feed, food and industrial sectors set to underpin record processing.
“While (soybean) shipments to China are seen little-changed year on year, larger deliveries to other destinations in Asia, as well as to Africa, should support expanded trade,” the IGC said.
After a 14-million-tonne increase in 2024-25, global rice production is seen expanding further this year, to a fresh peak of 495 million tonnes, including gains in China and the major exporters. Rice trade in 2026 is seen rising by 2% year on year, bolstered by the import requirements of buyers in Africa and Asia.
The IGC’s Grains and Oilseeds Price Index edged lower in the period since the April report. With relatively minor changes in most constituent components, the decline was mainly driven by a 4.5% drop in the maize sub-Index.
The GOI declined by nearly 1% month on month and is 10% below last year’s level in May.
Source: World Grain