Posted on May, 25, 2025 at 11:20 pm
While many market participants have been focused on and flustered by on-again, off-again tariffs that have sent the value of the US dollar, equities, crude oil and other markets on a rollercoaster ride in the past few months, most US farmers were undeterred, busy with spring planting.
Planting progress in the major producing states as of May 11 was 62% complete for corn (56% as the five-year average for the date), 48% for soybeans (37%) and 66% for spring wheat (49%), the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its May 12 Crop Progress report. Planting of nearly all crops included in the Crop Progress report was ahead of the average pace.
What prices farmers will receive for those crops at harvest (summer for winter wheat and fall for row crops, or whenever they are sold), remain to be seen based on recent futures price moves and new 2025-26 supply-and-demand projections from the USDA issued May 12.
The USDA projected record-high corn production of 15.82 billion bushels, up nearly 1 billion bushels, or 6%, from 2024, if realized, since the projection is based mainly on trends and acreage intentions, as was the case for all 2025-26 numbers in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Only wheat includes partial survey-based data for winter wheat, while spring wheat is projected for the total.
The higher corn production number more than offset higher 2025-26 projections for domestic use and exports (with total use projected record high), resulting in a corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2026, of 1.8 billion bushels, up 27% from 1.415 billion bushels in 2024-25 and the highest since 2019-20. The average price of corn paid to farmers was projected at $4.20 per bushel, down 15¢ from 2024-25.
Projections for average commodity prices received by farmers in 2025-26 were down from 2024-25 for all wheat ($5.30 per bushel vs. $5.50), sorghum ($4 vs $4.10), barley ($5.30 vs. $6.50), oats ($3.10 vs. $3.40) and all rice ($13.20 per cwt vs. $15.20). Sugar prices are not projected by the USDA, but refined sugar currently is selling in spot and forward markets at three-year lows.
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The glaring exception is soybeans, which until last week’s 90-day rollback of US and Chinese tariffs was one of the market’s major concerns because China takes most of US soybean exports and increasingly has turned to Brazil for supply.
The USDA projected soybean prices paid to farmers to average $10.25 per bushel in 2025-26, up 3% from $9.95 in 2024-25, with the soybean meal price projected at $310 per ton, up $10, and soybean oil at 46¢ per pound up 1¢.
Soybean production in 2025 was projected at 4.34 billion bushels, down 26 million bushels, or 0.6%, from 4.466 billion bushels in 2024-25. Domestic crush was projected at a record-high 2.49 billion bushels, up 2.9% from 2.42 billion bushels in 2024-25. Exports were projected at 1.815 billion bushels, down 2% from 2024-25, but carryover on Oct. 1, 2026, still was lowered 16% from this year to 295 million bushels.
While 2025-26 domestic soybean meal disappearance (livestock feed) was projected at 41.325 million tons, up 2% from 2024-25, it’s soybean oil that has been driving the soy complex. Use of soybean oil for the manufacture of biofuel in 2025-26 was projected at 13.9 billion pounds, up 6% from 13.1 million pounds in the current year. Food use was increased 100 million pounds, to 14 billion pounds, while exports were lowered 700 million pounds, to 1.7 million. The carryover of soybean oil on Oct. 1, 2026, was projected at 1.531 billion pounds, up 5.5% from the 2025 forecast of 1.451 billion, but the average price still was raised 1¢ a pound.
Expected higher government mandates for biofuel have yet to be realized and may dampen soybean oil demand if they fail to be implemented by the administration of President Donald Trump.
Futures prices were mixed the day the USDA data were released. Most wheat futures set fresh contract lows. Corn futures were narrowly mixed — old-crop months lower and new-crop months higher. Soy complex futures all closed higher, with soybeans at a three-month high. The US-China tariff rollback along with higher energy prices added to the bullish tone in the soy complex and provided some support to corn prices.
Of course, most everything depends on the weather over the coming weeks and months. The arrival of timely rains in the southern Plains pressured wheat futures in recent weeks, showing how quickly a market can turn. With corn about two-thirds planted and soybeans about half planted, the crops, and the farmers planting them, have a long summer ahead, even if tariffs become less of an issue.
Source: World Grain