Posted on May, 26, 2025 at 05:45 pm
Soybean prices have been supported by soy oil in recent weeks, although supplies from South America and progress in US plantings put pressure on. Technical trade has dominated, with uncertainty over international trading relations playing a role in sentiment.
The International Grains Council (IGC) in its Grain Market Report of May 22 said that, for soybeans, since its previous edition a month earlier, “average global export prices were flat, as softer quotations in Argentina contrasted with modest gains in Brazil and the US.”
“Chicago soybean spot futures were marginally firmer, with trading sometimes technical in nature amid few fundamental developments,” the IGC noted. “Sentiment was often shaped by changing perceptions surrounding US-China trade relations, with news that both countries had scaled back tariff rates significantly for a period of 90 days providing support in late April.
“The market was also buoyed by strength in soy oil. However, heavy South American availabilities, together with solid US seeding progress, pressured. With basis levels easing, Gulf export values were a touch stronger m/m (month on month), at $418 fob. Brazilian export prices (Paranagua) were 2% firmer m/m, at $406 fob, chiefly tracking movements in US futures as fob premiums showed little net change.”
In contrast, fob offers in Argentina (Up River) dropped by 3% month over month, to $396 fob, “boosting the country’s competitive position and helping to secure sizeable sales in recent weeks,” the IGC said.
On rapeseed, the IGC reported that against the backdrop of supportive fundamentals, notably tightening old crop supplies, ICE canola futures in Canada advanced by 6% month over month, with strength in vegetable oils adding to upside, while “in physical markets, fob values (Vancouver) gained $26, to $555, while Australian (Kwinana) offers also ticked higher.”
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), in its Food Price Index, published May 2, said vegetable oil prices in April were up 2.3% from March, but nearly 21% higher than in April 2024.
“The decline was mainly driven by lower palm oil prices, which more than offset higher soy and rapeseed oil quotations, while global sunflower oil prices remained largely stable,” the Rome, Italy-based organization said. “After two months of increases, international palm oil prices fell markedly in April, largely underpinned by a gradual recovery in global export supplies due to seasonally higher outputs in major Southeast Asian producing countries.”
World soy and rapeseed oil prices continued to rise, broadly reflecting, respectively, persistently firm global import demand and tightening supplies as the 2024-25 season nears its end, the FAO said.
“International sunflower oil prices, meanwhile, fluctuated within a narrow range during April but remained well above their year-earlier levels, amid shrinking supplies out of the Black Sea region,” the FAO said.
The USDA Economic Research Service, in its Oil Crops Outlook: May 2025, forecast an increase in global oilseeds production in 2025-26 of 14.9 million tonnes to nearly 692 million.
“Higher soybean production, which is expected to reach a record high of 426.8 million tonnes, accounts for most of the gain,” the ERS said.
The ERS forecast recoveries in rapeseed production by 4.5 million tonnes to 89.6 million and sunflowerseed by 4.3 million tonnes to 56.2 million, “on marginally higher area and trend yield.”
Global oilseeds trade is forecast to increase by 6.8 million tonnes to 215.1 million, “on higher soybean, peanut, and sunflowerseed exports, which are partially offset by lower rapeseed and cottonseed exports,” the ERS said, also predicting a rise in global oilseeds crush volume of 18.4 million tonnes to 580.5 million, with soybean crush volume accounting for 67% of that increase.”
Source: World Grain