Posted on May, 26, 2025 at 05:52 pm
In their May report, experts from the International Grains Council (IGC) raised the forecast for global grain production in the 2025/26 Marketing Year (MY) by 2 million tonnes compared to April estimates, to 2375 million tonnes, which is 2.8% higher than the current season’s harvest (2310 million tonnes), particularly the maize production forecast – to 1274 million tonnes (1223 million tonnes in the 2024/25 MY). Significant increases in production are expected in the EU, Argentina, and the USA, as reported by agronews.ua.
The forecast for global grain consumption has been reduced by 1 million tonnes to 2372 million tonnes, which is 2% higher than the 2024/25 MY figure (2334 million tonnes), due to increased use of soybeans in feed, industrial, and food purposes.
The estimate for global trade has been raised by 4 million tonnes to 428 million tonnes (418 million tonnes in the 2024/25 MY) due to the growth in wheat shipments.
The forecast for global carryover stocks of grain has been increased by 5 million tonnes to 585 million tonnes, which is 4 million tonnes higher than the current season’s figure, with stocks in leading world exporters expected to increase by 15 million tonnes. The last annual increase in global ending stocks was recorded in 2016-2017.
Thanks to good harvests in South America, global soybean production in the 2025/26 MY will increase by 2% compared to the previous season to 428 million tonnes, with increased demand for soy products in the feed, food, and industrial sectors expected to reach record processing levels.
Following a 14 million tonne increase in the 2024/25 MY, global rice production in the 2025/26 MY will reach a record level of 495 million tonnes due to a high harvest in China and major exporting countries. Rice trade volumes in 2026 will increase by 2% compared to the previous year due to increased imports by African and Asian countries.
The IGC grain and oilseed price index has slightly decreased compared to the April report, primarily due to a 4.5% decline in the maize sub-index, while most other components experienced minor changes.
Source: Agro News