Rice issues in Japan, and the global supplies dynamics

Rice, or food in general, is a serious political crop in some regions. In Japan, the agricultural Minister, Mr Taku Eto, had to resign last week after a bad joke about rice costs.

At a Press briefing, Eto remarked that “he never had to buy rice because his supporters give him ‘plenty’ of it as gifts“.

Now, in a year of abundance, such jokes would go unnoticed, but when Japan has a lower rice harvest and is struggling with rising rice prices, the joke will not be received well.

Japan aside, it is fair to say that from the world market perspective, rice supplies are not as critical as Japanese consumers have portrayed them. The latest data from the International Grains Council places the 2024-25 global rice harvest at 539 million tonnes, up 3% from the previous season. We see an improvement in harvest from the major producers. It also helps that India no longer has a ban on rice exports. The stocks for the season are also decent, at 178 million tonnes, which is also 3% higher than the last season.

But the optimism doesn’t end here; the season ahead looks good. For example, the International Grains Council forecasts the 2025-26 production at 541 million tonnes of global rice harvest, up slightly from the previous season. The expansion of the planted area and the favourable weather conditions are some of the factors behind the optimism about the global rice harvest.

Subsequently, the stocks also increased slightly, estimated at 179 million tonnes. Now, this is a picture of generally stable global rice supplies. The international prices continue to mirror this environment of ample global supplies.

As South Africans, we can’t fire people for rice issues like in Japan, but we would be shocked if agricultural minister John Steenhuisen told us his support gave him lots of rice or maize that he didn’t need to buy any! He must go grocery shopping like all of us.

But we do pay close attention to rice matters globally, not for juicy gossip from Japan, but because, as a country, while we are a net exporter of agricultural products, rice is one of the products we are not endowed with. We rely 100% on imports. We consume about a million tonnes of rice annually. We can’t produce rice because of our relatively dry environment; we are generally a semi-arid country.

Thailand is the leading rice supplier to South Africa, accounting, on average, for 74% of South Africa’s rice import volume over the past five years. India is the second largest rice supplier to South Africa, boasting an average annual share of 21% over the past five years. Other rice suppliers to South Africa include Pakistan, Vietnam, China, Australia, the US, and Brazil.

Therefore, this reliance on imports means we should constantly monitor global price developments. Indeed, this time around, the rice price prospects look to continue softening because of the abundant supplies and minimal trade disruptions.

All else being equal, the coming months will likely see much better continuous moderation in global rice prices. This will benefit importers like South Africa, and bodes well for consumer food price inflation, especially when grain prices also moderate on the back of an ample domestic harvest.

In all seriousness, one must think about rice in Japan like we feel about maize in Southern Africa. If a politician were to go around making naughty jokes about maize in the middle of the drought while farmers and consumers struggle, that would be insensitive. But if that is an agricultural Minister, that would be enough reason to ask whether they are devoted to their work or should change portfolios? From this perspective, Mr Taku Eto lost his job on rice matters in Japan.

Source: Agricultural Economics Today