Posted on May, 27, 2025 at 04:08 pm
In Ukraine, in the last months of the season, there is a sharp decline in export demand for expensive corn and wheat against the backdrop of declining world prices following the fall in prices for feed grain and meal in South America.
Export rates declined in April and May due to declining inventories and falling export prices.
Over the 26 days of May, corn exports from Ukraine decreased compared to the corresponding period last year by 2 times from 3.34 to 1.69 million tons, and in total in the 2024/25 season amounted to 20.2 million tons (26.2 million tons last year), while wheat exports decreased by half from 1.45 to 0.73 million tons, and in total in the season reached 14.64 million tons (17.24 million tons last year).
Purchase prices in Ukrainian ports are gradually falling, as traders are already preparing to purchase the new harvest, the prices for which are declared at $210/t for food wheat and $200/t for feed wheat, while for the old harvest they offer $225-230/t for food wheat and $212-215/t for feed wheat.
Export prices for corn remain at $225-228/t delivered to port as traders try to buy up the volumes needed for export. At the same time, prices for October deliveries of the new crop of corn have decreased from $205-208/t to $195-200/t on the background of favorable weather in the USA, Ukraine and the EU.
A record soybean harvest in Brazil and South America in general is putting pressure on prices for soybeans, soybean meal, and feed crops.
The completion of soybean harvest and planting of Safrinha corn in Brazil under optimal weather conditions has laid the foundation for a good second corn crop, which has already started to be harvested (0.9% of the area has been threshed so far). International buyers have already started to contract the first shipments for delivery in July.
In Argentina, heavy rainfall has delayed the soybean harvest, which is 77% threshed, slowing soybean meal shipments from the country. But dry and warm weather this week will allow farmers to increase the pace of soybean and corn harvests and accelerate the sowing of winter wheat in well-moistened soil.
Given the favorable weather and high soil moisture, experts from the Rosario Grain Exchange predict an increase in wheat sowing areas in the country in the MY 2025/26 to 7.2 million hectares and the second largest harvest at 21.2 million tons (18.5 million tons in the MY 2024/25).
For almost 30 years of expertise in the agri markets, UkrAgroConsult has accumulated an extensive database, which became the basis of the platform AgriSupp.
It is a multi-functional online platform with market intelligence for grains and oilseeds that enables to get access to daily operational information on the Black Sea & Danube markets, analytical reports, historical data.
Source: UkrAgroConsult