Posted on October, 2, 2018 at 11:16 am
By Eric Schroeder
LONDON, ENGLAND — The International Grains Council (IGC) on Sept. 27 raised its forecast for total grains production in 2018-19 to 2.072 billion tonnes, up from 2.063 billion tonnes in August but down from 2.095 billion tonnes forecast for 2017-18.
Total grains consumption is forecast at 2.136 billion tonnes, up from 2.129 billion tonnes in August and compared with 2.107 billion tonnes in 2017-18.
The forecast for total grains carryover stocks was raised to 544 million tonnes from 538 million tonnes a month ago and down from 608 million tonnes in 2017-18.
“Nearly all the adjustment is for maize, including increased figures for the U.S. (up 6.1 million tonnes), the E.U. (up 2.7 million tonnes) and Ukraine (up 1.2 million),” the IGC noted in the report. “The wheat crop is placed a fraction bigger month-on-month, with an upgrade for Russia partly offset by a cut for Australia. A 7-million-tonne month-on-month boost for grains consumption is also mainly for maize. While lifted by 6 million tonnes month-on-month, the predicted end-2018-19 carryover of 544 million would be down by 64 million (year-on-year), led by declines for maize (down 38 million tonnes) and wheat (down 17 million tonnes). After roughly offsetting alterations for wheat and maize, the trade forecast is little changed month-on-month at a record 369 million tonnes.”
Corn production in 2018-19 is forecast at 1.074 billion tonnes, up from 1.064 billion tonnes in August and up from 1.047 billion tonnes in 2017-18. Consumption is forecast at 1.113 billion tonnes, up from 1.105 billion tonnes in August and compared with 1.078 billion tonnes in 2017-18.
Global wheat production in 2018-19 is forecast at 717 million tonnes, up from 716 million tonnes in August and compared with 758 million tonnes forecast for 2017-18. Consumption was forecast unchanged, at 734 million tonnes. The IGC forecast 2017-18 global wheat consumption at 735 million tonnes.
Soybean production in 2018-19 is forecast at 370 million tonnes, up from 366 million tonnes in August and up from 339 million tonnes in 2017-18. Consumption is forecast at 358 million tonnes, up from 357 million tonnes in August and 345 million a year ago.
Rice production in 2018-19 is forecast at 491 million tonnes, unchanged from August, and up from 490 million tonnes in 2017-18. Rice consumption also is forecast unchanged, at 492 million tonnes, which compared with 487 million tonnes in 2017-18.
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) fell 0.7%, the IGC said.
“Amid divergent fundamental outlooks, global grains and oilseeds prices exhibited mixed trends in recent weeks,” the IGC said. “The IGC GOI declined by 1% overall, as weakness in maize, wheat and rice export values outweighed gains in soyabeans and barley.”
Source: WORLD-GRAIN.COM