Posted on March, 10, 2021 at 10:20 am
Mainly because of larger than previously estimated wheat crops in Australia, Kazakhstan and Russia, the forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 is up by 6m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,216m. Overall consumption is raised by broadly the same amount, leaving the figure for total grains stocks the same as in the last GMR, at 611m t, still representing a projected drawdown of 6m y/y (year-on-year). Including upgrades for wheat, maize, barley and sorghum, the forecast for global grains trade in 2020/21 (Jul/Jun) is boosted by 4m t m/m, to a record 412m (394m previous year).
This month's update to wheat supply and demand prospects for 2021/22 sees no change in the production projection from before, still placed at a record 790m t, up 2% y/y. As forecast consumption is raised on a higher figure for feeding, the outlook for world wheat stocks is trimmed m/m, but is still placed at a new peak. Because of anticipated heightened competition from other cropping options, global barley harvested area in 2021/22 is seen dropping to a three-year low. Prospects for favourable returns could see world maize area climb for a third successive season, to an all-time high.
With minor upward revisions for soyabean production and supplies channelled to consumption, the Council’s forecast for world ending stocks in 2020/21 is maintained at 45m t, the second successive annual fall and down by 11% y/y. Major exporters’ inventories are seen steady m/m, at 10m t, as a reduced outlook for the US is offset by a nominal upgrade for Brazil. Reflecting larger than expected dispatches thus far, the trade outlook is upgraded by 1m t, to 169m, fractionally below the prior season’s record.
At 504m t, global rice production in 2020/21 is pegged fractionally higher m/m and would be a new peak. The outlook for consumption is maintained but, due to higher carry-ins, end-season inventories are lifted by around 1m t, to 176m (+2m y/y). World import demand in 2021 (Jan/Dec) is predicted at 46m t, a gain of 2m y/y.
With a retreat in maize and soyabean values balanced by firmer prices for wheat and barley, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) is unchanged from January's GMR.
Source: International Grain Council